Group D | Levi’s Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area | Jun 26, 2026 | 7:30 AM IST
Match Overview
Group D’s final matchday is effectively a straight knockout. Win, and you go through as the second qualifier. Lose, and you’re almost going home — three points with negative goal difference won’t be enough. A draw could keep both alive. The USA are qualified, Türkiye are gone. At the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium on Thursday, it’s down to these two.
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Paraguay — Team Analysis
Paraguay are back at a World Cup for the first time since South Africa 2010. Gustavo Alfaro has built a side around the counter — a tight, low block and quick transitions. Matías Galarza’s 64-second strike against Türkiye, created by Enciso’s flick, was the fastest goal in this tournament and came from a team that knew exactly what it was doing.
The problem on Thursday is Miguel Almirón — suspended. FIFA confirmed a one-game ban after his red card for covering his mouth during the match against Türkiye, the first dismissal under that rule at a World Cup. Almirón links midfield and attack and sets the tone for Paraguay’s counter-press. Without him, Julio Enciso (22, Strasbourg) carries the creative burden. Diego Gómez (Brighton) and Ramón Sosa need to provide the engine alongside.
Key Player: Julio Enciso | Strasbourg | Forward — A 22-year-old with the flair and directness to unlock any defence, Enciso carries Paraguay’s creative burden today with Almirón suspended. His flick set up Galarza’s tournament-fastest goal against Türkiye — now he needs to make the chance himself.
Australia — Team Analysis
Tony Popovic’s Socceroos beat Türkiye 2-0 in Vancouver with real conviction — Nestory Irankunda opened the scoring in the 27th minute with a direct run down the right, and Connor Metcalfe added a tidy finish in the 75th minute to seal it. The USA loss was 0-2, but it scarcely told the story.
Irankunda is the player who catches the eye. At 20, the Watford winger is direct, quick, and capable of the kind of moment that changes a match. Jackson Irvine anchors the midfield from St. Pauli with composure and range, and 34-year-old Mathew Ryan — appearing at his fourth World Cup — brings exactly the calm that tournament football demands between the posts.
Key Player: Nestory Irankunda | Watford | Winger — At just 20, he has been the most exciting attacker in Group D, opening the scoring against Türkiye with a direct run nobody could handle. If there’s one player capable of deciding this match on his own, it’s him.
Head-to-Head
Five meetings in history — all friendlies — and Australia have the slight edge: two wins to Paraguay’s none, with three draws. The last time they met was in October 2010, when Australia won 1-0. Thursday is their first World Cup meeting.
Tactical Preview
Without Almirón’s press from the front, Paraguay’s shape risks becoming too passive. Alfaro will want his back line compact and trust the counter; Enciso needs to find space between Australia’s lines. Gustavo Gómez — Palmeiras captain — anchors the defence with the aggression to hold that structure together.
Popovic will want Irankunda to attack Paraguay’s full-backs from the first whistle. If Australia can stretch that compact shape wide, Irvine and Metcalfe have the space to press. Their pressing troubled Türkiye — whether they can sustain it for 90 minutes against a disciplined defensive side is the real question.
Key Storylines
- When Paraguay beat Türkiye, Almirón was pressing, linking, creating — until he got sent off before half-time. Now he’s serving his ban. For Paraguay’s counter-attacking game to work without their most important creative player, Enciso needs to deliver a complete performance. It’s a lot to ask of a 22-year-old in the biggest match of his career.
- At 20, Nestory Irankunda scored against Türkiye and has been the brightest attacking player in this group. Direct, fearless, better against deep defences than most players twice his age. A win here and he walks into the Round of 32 as one of the tournament’s emerging names.
Our Prediction
Two compact, counter-attacking sides — this is the kind of match that ends 1-0 and feels like a war. Paraguay lose their creative engine in Almirón; Australia carry slightly better form and a cleaner goal difference. One moment will settle it.
Without Almirón, Paraguay need Enciso to produce something special. Australia have enough to edge it — and guaranteed knockout football is all the motivation Popovic’s side needs.
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